World Cup 2026, Group D: USA favoured, but Güler’s Turkey won’t agree

The group looks like it was designed to test the idea that co-hosts walk the easy path to the knockout round. It was not. The United States drew Turkey — a team that just ended a twenty-four-year World Cup absence and brought Arda Güler with them. They drew Paraguay, who beat Brazil and Argentina inside twelve months to earn their ticket to North America. They drew Australia, qualifying directly for the first time since 2014, under a manager who turned eight straight unbeaten results into a World Cup berth.

Call it Group D. Call it the group America cannot afford to take for granted.

The hosts and the weight they carry

Mauricio Pochettino has the talent. Folarin Balogun scored nineteen goals in all competitions this season at Monaco — a number built at Champions League level, not a soft domestic league. Weston McKennie covers ground in midfield the way McKennie always does: with force and without ceremony. Tyler Adams anchors, screens, connects.

And then there is Christian Pulisic. He is the centre of gravity of this team — the captain, the creative focal point, the argument for American soccer’s maturation. Pulisic arrives at this tournament having gone eight consecutive USMNT appearances without a goal. Pochettino has made clear his trust has not shifted. That is the argument for Pulisic: he finds the moment. That is the concern: this is the biggest moment, and the drought is real.

Turkey’s twenty-four-year wait ends with a twenty-one-year-old

The most consequential figure in this group might not be American. Arda Güler is twenty-one years old, plays for Real Madrid, and was named the Champions League’s Revelation of the Season. He creates chances the way genuinely exceptional players do — not by getting into positions, but by seeing positions that don’t exist until he is already there. Kenan Yildiz at Juventus adds directness and pace. Hakan Çalhanoglu, the Inter Milan captain, is the anchor that allows everything in front of him to function.

Vincenzo Montella built Turkey through back-to-back playoff victories — 1-0 over Romania and 1-0 over Kosovo — to reach their first World Cup since 2002. Turkey opens against Australia in Vancouver. If Güler runs and the Montella structure holds, Turkey could be level-footed going into the group’s defining fixture: Turkey versus USA in Los Angeles on June 25.

Paraguay and the number that tells the story

Gustavo Alfaro’s side conceded ten goals in eighteen qualifying matches. They scored fourteen. Those numbers describe a team that is extremely difficult to beat and genuinely limited going forward. Miguel Almirón presses relentlessly. Gustavo Gómez commands the defensive structure with Palmeiras-bred discipline. The victories over Brazil and Argentina in CONMEBOL qualifying are facts, not decoration — Paraguay earned their place.

Australia and the debutants

Tony Popovic replaced Graham Arnold, went eight games unbeaten, and secured direct qualification for the first time since 2014. Mathew Leckie is here for his fourth World Cup. Mat Ryan is the veteran goalkeeper. But seventeen of the twenty-six players have never been to this tournament before. Nestory Irankunda is a teenage striker with pace that opponents haven’t mapped in competitive context. The 3-4-2-1 Popovic runs requires exact execution — if the debutants find their footing, the Socceroos are a problem for whoever faces them.

The lean

The United States should top the group. Home advantage, the higher FIFA ranking, Balogun’s goal output, the squad depth — the case is real. But Turkey’s Güler is twenty-one and exceptional, their structure is built to hold and counter, and their opening match in Vancouver could shape the entire group before the United States have played a minute. The case for Turkey advancing alongside the Americans is considerably stronger than the seedings suggest.