World Cup 2026, Group K: Portugal Favoured — Colombia Make the Case

Six World Cups is not a statistic anymore. Cristiano Ronaldo, 41, is the last standing figure from the tournament’s defining generational rivalry — Messi’s chapter resolved itself in Qatar — and his presence in Group K transforms what would otherwise be a straightforward group into something more weighted: a relay question. Portugal built their Nations League title around this squad, won it, and arrived here with a clear tactical identity under Roberto Martínez. They are the favourites. They should top this group. The question is who earns the right to go with them.

That question belongs to Colombia.

Portugal: The Favourite

Martínez builds his side around a midfield that has no honest parallel in Group K. João Neves, Vitinha, and Bernardo Silva give Portugal the ability to control territory without conceding transitions. Bruno Fernandes — named Premier League Player of the Season — is the front-facing pivot, arriving late into spaces and dictating tempo from the base of the forward line. The system starts as a 4-2-3-1, expands to a 3-2-5 when Portugal have the ball, and floods the half-spaces with runners from the second line.

Ronaldo occupies the central striker role not as a driver of Portugal’s construction play but as its conclusion. What he retains — documented across 21 years of the sport’s highest levels — is the instinct for where the ball arrives in dangerous areas, and the finishing that makes leaving him unmarked a punishable error. Rúben Dias went through a hamstring scare in March; his fitness is Portugal’s primary structural uncertainty. A back four anchored by Dias at his best is as authoritative as anything in this group. Either way, Portugal win it.

Colombia: The Challenger

Néstor Lorenzo’s side missed Qatar entirely, and that absence shapes how this squad approaches the tournament: they arrive carrying both Copa América runner-up pedigree and a tournament-sized hunger. Luis Díaz registered 49 direct goal involvements in 51 appearances for Bayern Munich this season — a domestic double campaign that reached the Champions League semi-finals. He scored seven World Cup qualifying goals, one fewer than Messi. He is 27 years old and at the high watermark of his career.

James Rodríguez, at 34, plays his third World Cup. His sharpness questions are real, but what James offers in a tournament is space-reading and distribution at a level that still functions without consistent match rhythm. The midfield behind Díaz matters equally: Jefferson Lerma and Richard Ríos allowed Colombia to concede only 15 goals across 18 qualifying matches. If the defensive foundation holds, Colombia’s attacking quality makes them genuine round-of-16 material. The opener against Uzbekistan is the one they cannot afford to misread.

DR Congo: The Return

The last time DR Congo played at a World Cup was 1974 — then Zaïre, 52 years ago. The path back required three consecutive knockout wins: Chancel Mbemba scoring against Cameroon, converting the decisive penalty against Nigeria, then Axel Tuanzebe finishing in the 100th minute against Jamaica. Mbemba, 107 caps and 31 years old, is the captain and the emotional centre. Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Yoane Wissa add Premier League quality. The Atlanta match against Uzbekistan on 27 June is the game Group K asks of them.

Uzbekistan: The Debut

Uzbekistan have never appeared at a World Cup before. Fabio Cannavaro — Italy’s 2006 World Cup-winning captain — was appointed manager in October and makes no pretence about his 3-4-2-1: discipline, organisation, and Eldor Shomurodov on the counter. Abdukodir Khusanov at Manchester City represents the squad’s European standard. Against DR Congo in the final fixture, Cannavaro’s structure and Shomurodov’s instinct get a genuine test. The result tells the story of Central Asian football’s arrival.

The argument

Portugal top this group. The Nations League win, the squad depth, Martínez’s structural clarity — none of that disappears in Houston. The real contest is Colombia establishing themselves in Mexico City, holding clean through Guadalajara, and arriving in Miami knowing what they need. Díaz’s form and Lorenzo’s defensive structure make Colombia the right call for second. Drop points against Uzbekistan in the opener, and the group opens. That is the one match to watch.