World Cup 2026, Group F: Netherlands Favoured — Japan Won’t Agree

Ronald Koeman spent two years teaching the Netherlands to be patient. Not beautiful — patient. Virgil van Dijk holds the defensive line, Tijjani Reijnders screens the space in front of it, and the Oranje control what happens by controlling what doesn’t. It is not Total Football and Koeman has said as much. It is something more calculated: a side that knows it cannot be broken, and invites you to prove otherwise.

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Hajime Moriyasu’s Japan have a different proposition. The Blue Samurai beat England one-nil in a spring warm-up and held Scotland the same way. They arrive in Texas not hoping to compete — they expect it.

The Favourites and What They’re Missing

Netherlands finished their UEFA qualifying group with twenty-seven goals and a goal difference of plus twenty-three. Ronald Koeman’s side were clinical, organised, and difficult to play through — numbers that reflect a team operating with intent rather than coasting on talent. Van Dijk captains from the back and remains the best defensive reader in this tournament at thirty-four: a man who commits to a duel only after he’s already won it in his head.

The significant absence is Xavi Simons, who ruptured his ACL in April and will miss the entire tournament. Simons was the Netherlands’ most creative threat in transition — his movement between the lines gave Koeman’s side an unpredictability that is now gone. Frenkie de Jong steps into a more central coordinating role. Reijnders, excellent at AC Milan, becomes the engine connecting defence to attack. Cody Gakpo at Liverpool provides a winger who arrives late into the box and delivers; Memphis Depay, who recovered from a thigh problem to make the squad, offers experience off the bench.

Koeman acknowledged before the tournament that he does not expect Total Football in the Texas heat. The plan is structured, compact, and built to absorb pressure before finding the counter. Against a disciplined, low-block defence, the Netherlands can look ponderous. Japan intend to be exactly that disciplined, and exactly that low.

Japan and the Case for First

Twenty-two of Moriyasu’s players ply their trade in Europe — several among the top five leagues’ better sides. Takefusa Kubo at Real Sociedad is the creative fulcrum: twenty-five years old, fifty caps, a dribbler who changes direction the way a pick-pocket changes hands. Wataru Endo captains from the base of midfield with the kind of positional economy that frees the players ahead of him. Ritsu Doan at Frankfurt and Ayase Ueda at Feyenoord give Japan a direct threat in behind.

They are without Kaoru Mitoma, whose Brighton form had made him Japan’s most dangerous wide option. That injury costs them width and the kind of low-to-ground, carry-in-behind running that stretches defences laterally. Without Mitoma, Kubo and Doan do more through central channels — which suits Japan’s style, even if it reduces the breadth of their attacking picture.

What Moriyasu has built is a team that adapts faster than its opponents can plan for it. In 2022 they beat Germany and Spain from a position of organised chaos — a low block that triggered rapid, precise counter-attacks in the moments after winning the ball. The spring warm-ups over England and Scotland confirm this is not a fluke squad. The pressing triggers are sharper, the recovery positions more disciplined, and the confidence in their own system is visible. They will sit deep against the Netherlands, compress the space around Gakpo and Reijnders, and wait for a Van Dijk clearance or a de Jong misplacement to generate the counter.

Sweden’s One-Man Bet

Viktor Gyökeres is carrying a country. Sweden qualified through the playoffs after a qualifying campaign that produced two points and no wins — enough to provoke sustained hostility from their own supporters and the eventual removal of the coach. Graham Potter, who built his reputation on progressive pressing systems at Brighton, arrived in October to fix what remained.

Gyökeres scored a hat-trick against Ukraine in the playoff semi-final and delivered the decisive goal against Poland. At Arsenal in 2025-26 he scored nineteen goals across all competitions. He wins aerial duels, holds the ball under contact, and finishes with both feet. Alexander Isak — technically the more accomplished striker — managed only eight league starts at Liverpool due to injury. If he arrives fit and sharp, Sweden are a different proposition.

Tunisia and the Clean-Sheet Question

Tunisia posted ten clean sheets across ten qualifying matches. Sabri Lamouchi’s side surrendered nothing in a full qualifying campaign and have never advanced past the group stage in seven previous World Cup appearances. Group F represents their clearest opportunity yet. Ellyes Skhiri captains from midfield, bringing Eintracht Frankfurt experience into a group with better-ranked opponents. The question is whether Tunisia’s defensive identity can hold through ninety minutes against ball-possession sides — and whether their attack can take what arrives when it does.

The Path Through

Netherlands open against Japan on June 14 in Dallas. A Netherlands win moves the Dutch towards the top of the group with Sweden and Tunisia competing for third. A Japan win or draw, and the hierarchy is open — four teams with something to play for heading into matchday two.

Netherlands should advance. Japan likely with them. The group is tighter than the rankings suggest — and whether Moriyasu’s side can push the Dutch to second is the argument worth watching.

Tags: wc26