World Cup 2026, Group L: England Favoured — Modrić’s Croatia Won’t Agree

England haven’t conceded in a World Cup qualifier. Under Thomas Tuchel, they played eight, won eight, and kept every clean sheet — the only European side in this cycle to complete qualifying without surrendering a goal. That statistic is not decorative. It is the signature of a team that has been structurally rebuilt: the defensive intelligence comes first, and the goals follow in volume. On paper, Group L belongs to England.

The paper never gets the final word when Luka Modrić is in the room.

Croatia arrive carrying a different kind of mathematics. Their run to the 2018 final — through Argentina, Brazil, England, and a France squad that was arguably the most complete in the world — was achieved not by outplaying those teams on talent but by outlasting them on nerve. Zlatko Dalić has never coached the most gifted side at any tournament. He has coached, consistently, one of the most cohesive. That distinction travels across eight years and a continent, and it will travel to Dallas.

England: The Tuchel Transformation

Harry Kane captains England at a third World Cup — a record equalled. But the team around him looks substantially different from the side that kept reaching semifinals and losing them. Tuchel’s structure morphs from a conventional 4-2-3-1 into a fluid 3-2-5 when England have possession: the full-backs invert, Declan Rice settles into a deep screening role, and Jude Bellingham — 22 years old, operating like someone a decade older — becomes the operational centre of everything England do.

Bellingham is the pressure point. He presses with an intelligence that reads the game two moves ahead, covers ground between the lines before opponents can settle, and carries the rare capacity to change the tempo of a match without the ball as much as with it. Bukayo Saka on the right side tests defenders one-on-one at pace and earns set-pieces through sheer persistence. Rice anchors the structure.

What Tuchel dropped from the previous cycle is as telling as what he kept. Cole Palmer misses the squad. Phil Foden too. Trent Alexander-Arnold is absent. The manager made ruthless calls, and the 26 that emerge are physically aggressive, built for the weight of a month rather than a single brilliant performance. Marcus Rashford — back under Tuchel after a difficult season — gives England a different forward solution alongside Kane, Saka, Anthony Gordon, and Ollie Watkins.

The question England carry into Group L is the same one every perfect qualifying record leaves open: which version of this team arrives when the tournament actually starts?

Croatia: The Clock That Runs Differently

Luka Modrić will be 40 when he plays his sixth World Cup in the United States — a milestone he shares, remarkably, only with Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. He moved from Real Madrid to AC Milan this season, and his game now operates less on box-to-box engine than on positional intelligence so refined it seems to slow the game around him.

When Modrić manages the rhythm, Croatia don’t need to dominate possession. They need to control its temperature. The ball moves through him at walking pace when he wants to kill the clock, then accelerates through short combinations before opponents can shift their shape. Joško Gvardiol — one of the best defenders in the Premier League this season at Manchester City — gives Croatia genuine quality in the defensive line. Mateo Kovačić, recovered from injury, returns as the midfield’s pressure-resistant floor.

Andrej Kramarić at striker is the archetype of the Croatian profile: not explosive, not especially physical, but technically precise in tight spaces with a finishing record at international level that consistently beats expectation. Croatia had one draw in qualifying, against Czech Republic. They won’t top the bookmakers’ lists. None of that changes the structural fact: when the tournament reaches knockout pressure in the final group-stage matchdays, Croatia arrive at a different gear.

Ghana: Without the Player Who Qualified Them

Ghana’s preparation absorbed a serious blow when Mohammed Kudus — the West Ham forward whose goal sealed their qualification, and the most creative player in Carlos Queiroz’s squad — was ruled out injured. The Black Stars are a genuinely different side without him.

Jordan Ayew captains. Antoine Semenyo and Iñaki Williams provide directness and pace in the forward line, capable of stretching compact defences. Thomas Partey gives the midfield its engine and its organisational authority. The squad is young — average age close to 26 — and Ghana have shown in Africa Cup of Nations cycles that they can compete against technically superior opponents when the structure holds. But Kudus was the player who found solutions when the shape didn’t. His absence leaves a question Ghana don’t yet have a clear answer to.

Panama: The Complication on Paper

Panama’s second World Cup appearance is built around one player above all others. Adalberto Carrasquilla — known as Coco, operating at UNAM Pumas — is the most dangerous creative force in CONCACAF outside Mexico and the United States. Captain Aníbal Godoy’s 157 international caps represent a national record and an organisational experience that makes Panama compact, disciplined, and hard to score against. Thomas Christiansen’s team press high, transition quickly, and use the flanks with purpose. In 2018, they competed until the final whistle in Russia.

They are outsiders in Group L. A tournament matchday against opponents who arrive with assumptions can occasionally reward that.

The Fixtures and the Case

England and Croatia meet first, at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on June 17 — the group’s axis. A Croatia win reshapes every calculation. A draw keeps pressure on England through two more matches. An England win opens distance the other sides will struggle to recover.

Ghana face Panama in Toronto the same day. Without Kudus, Queiroz’s team are expected to advance past Panama — but the forward lines in that match are closer than the names suggest.

England are the predicted group winners. Croatia are the one side in Group L with the tournament history and the tactical makeup to make that a forecast rather than a certainty.

Modrić walks out in Dallas in less than two weeks. At 40, in a sixth World Cup, he has had enough of other people’s mathematics.

Tags: wc26, Group L, ghana, England, Panama, Croatia