Nations League Quarter-Final Race, Ranked: France Need a Point, Germany Need Two Wins

Italy beat France at San Siro with a third of the ball. Zinedine Zidane‘s side completed more than twice as many passes, hit the woodwork twice and still lost, because Roberto Mancini‘s team needed only two clean moves down the left and a pair of penalties to turn an early deficit into a comfortable Nations League win. It was the result of the night in League A, and it reshuffled Italy’s group so thoroughly that the team now top of the table can still go out.

Spain, England and Portugal are already through to the quarter-finals. Seven teams are chasing the other five places, and this ranking orders them by the strength of their case: the points they still need, the opponents they have left and, above all, whether the way they play is built for that particular job. France head the list despite losing. Germany close it.

1. France: one point at home, and a possession game that suits a weak opponent

France have 10 points and finish at home to Türkiye, who have lost all five of their games and conceded 13 goals. A draw is enough whatever happens in Brussels. If Belgium beat Italy, France still finish above Italy; if Italy avoid defeat, Belgium cannot catch France.

Milan exposed the problem Zidane has not yet solved. France had 65 per cent of the ball and 589 passes to Italy’s 315, yet managed five shots on target, the same number as Italy. Their goal came from a mistake rather than a move: Gianluigi Donnarumma‘s pass after a short goal kick went straight to Michael Olise, who scored his fifth goal in four Nations League games. Without Kylian Mbappé, rested after a knock in training, the possession produced pressure and few chances. Against a side that has already shipped 13, possession is the easier problem to carry, and France’s last task is the most forgiving of the seven.

2. Italy: a team built to play without the ball, needing a draw away from home

Italy also have 10 points and need a draw in Brussels. Lose, and they need Türkiye to beat France and a tiebreak to go their way.

The case for them is the match they have just won. Mancini’s 4-3-3 accepted France’s possession and attacked the space behind it. Nicolò Cambiaghi reached the left byline and cut the ball back for Pio Esposito’s equaliser; then Federico Dimarco, on as a substitute, crossed low from the same side for Davide Frattesi to finish. Esposito converted the second penalty after his brother Sebastiano had missed the first, and at 21 he has nine goals in 14 games for Italy. A side this comfortable without the ball is the right shape for an away game it does not have to win.

The case against is the opponent. Belgium won 2-0 in Rome in Mancini’s first game back, and Italy’s build-up from the goalkeeper handed France their goal in Milan.

3. Greece: the most settled block in League A, and the softer finish

Greece have eight points, the same as the Netherlands. Ivan Jovanović has coached them since 2024, and their compact 4-4-2 has conceded three goals in four games without losing any of them: a stoppage-time Anastasios Douvikas header in Belgrade, a first ever win over Germany in Augsburg, a goalless draw in the return and a 2-2 with the Netherlands after leading 2-0 at half-time.

Their run-in favours them. They visit the Netherlands on Friday, then host Serbia, who have no points and have conceded eight. A draw in Amsterdam followed by a win over Serbia would take Greece to 12 points, a total that guarantees a top-two finish. A block every player already knows rarely drops points against a weak side, which is why Greece sit above the team level with them.

4. Netherlands: an attack in volume, with little cover behind it

The Netherlands are unbeaten too, with eight points, and Xavi Hernández’s positional game creates chances in bulk. What it has not yet done is protect its own goal. They needed a stoppage-time Cody Gakpo equaliser against Germany and an 89th-minute Tijjani Reijnders goal to draw in Thessaloniki after Greece had gone two up in the first half.

Their finish is the hardest in the group: Greece at home on Friday, then Germany in Berlin on Monday. A side that commits so many players ahead of the ball has to win the transition battle against two opponents who have conceded five goals between them in eight games.

5. Denmark: a three-point cushion, and a defence that struggles with the group’s best attacks

Denmark have six points, three more than Norway and Wales. They play in Braga on Saturday and then host Norway in Copenhagen on Tuesday, while Norway and Wales meet in Oslo in between.

Denmark beat Wales twice without conceding, 2-0 and 1-0. Against Norway and Portugal, the two most productive attacks in the group, they let in seven goals in two games and lost both. The likely decider for second place is against the side that already scored three past them. Beat Norway, and only a Wales win over Portugal in Cardiff could bring a tiebreak into play.

6. Belgium: they must win, and they have already beaten Italy once

Belgium are a point behind on nine and have the simplest instruction in League A: beat Italy at home and they are through, whatever France do. A draw keeps them alive only if Türkiye beat France, and even then a tiebreak decides it.

Mark van Bommel’s side have already won in Rome, and in İzmir the attack turned the game quickly: after Arda Güler‘s free kick put Türkiye ahead, within ten minutes Kevin De Bruyne had equalised from Jérémy Doku’s pass and Charles De Ketelaere had scored from Maxim De Cuyper’s cross. The weakness sits in the other half of the record. Five of the six goals Belgium have conceded came against France, the only team in the group to beat them. On Thursday’s evidence Italy will hand them the ball and wait, and whether Belgium can break a deep block is the reason they sit below Denmark.

7. Germany: the defence is fine, the attack needs rebuilding in two games

Germany have five points and realistically need to win both games, in Belgrade on Friday and at home to the Netherlands on Monday. Even six points may not settle it if the Netherlands beat Greece.

Germany have conceded two goals in four games, the fewest in the group. The attack is: three goals in four matches, two of them in the home win over Serbia, after Jürgen Klopp spent the autumn rotating a 44-man pool. His 24-man November squad is the correction: it leaves out Nick Woltemade and recalls Niclas Füllkrug after nine goals in eight Bundesliga games for Werder Bremen. “Good form and scoring goals is never a bad thing,” Klopp told the federation’s own channel.

The recall changes the shape. A fixed reference point in the box gives Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz and the wide players someone to play around, after a window in which Germany had the ball against Greece’s deep 4-4-2 and nobody to finish the move. Installing it in two games is why Germany sit last.

The final round is a test of structure

Spain and England meet in Madrid on Sunday to decide who tops Group A3, and Portugal are through in Group A4. The top two in each group go into the two-legged quarter-finals in March; third place means a play-off against a League B runner-up to stay in League A. Everywhere else, the last round asks structural questions. France must break a weak side with the possession that failed against a strong one. Italy must protect a draw by giving up the ball again. Germany have two games to find out whether one centre-forward can supply what a 44-man audition did not.

Tags: France, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands, greece