Champions League 2026-27 at Halfway: the Big Clubs in Danger, Ranked — Napoli Face the Steepest Climb

Napoli went to Porto needing a result and lost the game at corners. Two set pieces, two Polish centre-backs rising in the middle of the box, and a side whose coach had said its European fate was in its own hands left with a red card, a heavy defeat and a place in the bottom third of the Champions League table. Halfway through the league phase, that is where several of Europe’s big names now stand.

The table puts them in the same band, and from a distance their crises look alike. They are not. This list ranks six of them by how real the danger of missing the top twenty-four is, weighing two things: whether the problem sits in the team’s structure or just in its results, and how hard the four remaining fixtures are. Napoli come first. Atlético Madrid, with the fewest goals of the group but the gentlest road, come last.

1. Napoli: conceding at both ends of the set piece

Three points from four games, 27th place, 11 goals conceded. The defeats have different shapes but share one weakness: Napoli lose the box. In Porto, Jan Bednarek headed in Gabri Veiga’s corner after 11 minutes. Scott McTominay equalised before half-time, but Veiga then finished a Porto break and Jakub Kiwior headed in Hwang In-beom’s corner after 80. Porto had 19 shots to Napoli’s 11. Against Bodø/Glimt, the one win, Napoli still conceded three, the last from a stoppage-time corner. Against Arsenal they managed five shots to 26.

Massimiliano Allegri set the target himself before the trip: “With 10 points, we can qualify for the play-offs,” he told Sky Sport Italia, adding that “some small details” were missing. Napoli now need seven points from Manchester City away, Club Brugge at home, Sabah away and Viking at home. The order is the problem. They open the run-in at the Etihad without Rafa Marín, sent off in Porto, and with a team that has just lost in the league to Juventus after going down to ten men. The last three fixtures look winnable. A defence that concedes from dead balls makes no fixture safe.

2. Villarreal: a back line that gives way under pressure

Villarreal have conceded 14 goals in four games, more than any side in the competition except Lens and Slovan Bratislava. They have let in three or more in each of their three defeats. At Anfield they led 2-0 and lost 4-3. At home to Paris Saint-Germain they were four down inside 17 minutes, the fastest four goals in Champions League history according to Opta, and finished with 29 per cent of the ball and two shots on target.

The defeats follow one pattern: once opponents get runners beyond the midfield, the back line drops and the space in front of it opens. Villarreal can score, eight goals in four games, but they cannot slow a match down. The run-in is kinder than Napoli’s: Slavia Prague away, Sabah at home, Fenerbahçe away and Manchester United at home on the final night. They need wins, and a team that leaks this freely needs to outscore everyone to get them.

3. Roma: two-goal leads that do not hold

Roma are 20th on four points, and the table flatters nobody here. They have scored ten goals, more than most sides around them, and twice built a two-goal lead against a big club. Both times they lost. Against Real Madrid they led 3-1 with half an hour left and conceded three goals in the last eight minutes, all three from corner situations. At Old Trafford they were 2-0 up after 17 minutes and lost 3-2.

Part of that is circumstance: Roma arrived in Manchester with absences, their third-choice goalkeeper Devis Vásquez in goal. But both second halves show a side that sits deeper once it is ahead and then cannot clear its own box. The next fixture is Paris Saint-Germain away. After that come Sporting CP at home, AEK Athens away and Lille at home. Three of those are winnable. That is why Roma rank below Villarreal, but the late collapses are a structural issue, not bad luck.

4. RB Leipzig: a bad position from a hard draw

Leipzig are 30th with three points and a goal difference of minus six, which reads like a crisis. Look at the opponents: Como, Real Madrid and Manchester City account for all three defeats. Against City on Wednesday, Martin Demichelis’s side had 35 per cent of the ball but 14 shots, equalised twice and hit the crossbar before Erling Haaland‘s late winner. Leipzig look like a team that knows how to attack quickly after winning the ball.

The concern is the 11 goals conceded, because a transition team leaves space behind it when the counterattack fails. But the hard part of the draw is done. Lens at home, Manchester United away, Shakhtar Donetsk at home and Feyenoord away is a run-in that a side playing this well should handle. The position is bad; the trend is less so.

5. Porto: defeats by narrow margins and a set-piece weapon

Porto lost their first three games and are still only 26th, but they have conceded seven goals, the fewest of anyone on this list bar Atlético. The defeats were close: 2-0 to City, 3-2 at Real Betis, 1-0 at home to PSV. They also came into the Napoli game with ten straight league wins, and that match showed what Francesco Farioli has built: a dangerous set-piece routine and a side that can break quickly.

The fixtures help. Feyenoord away is next, then the one hard trip, to Liverpool, then Slavia Prague at home and LASK away. Porto’s danger is real only if they keep losing close games. The structure is sound.

6. Atlético Madrid: little attacking threat, but the easiest run-in

Atlético have scored four goals in four games, the fewest of any side on this list. Against Bayern Munich at home on Tuesday they had 41 per cent of the ball and nine shots, and conceded twice in the second half to a Bayern team missing Vincent Kompany from the touchline, Jamal Musiala and Luis Díaz. Lennart Karl, 18, scored the first from an Atlético mistake. Diego Simeone‘s team defends well enough; the problem is what it does with the ball.

Atlético are 23rd on four points, and the run-in is the gentlest of the six: Viking at home, PSV away, Bodø/Glimt away, Fenerbahçe at home. A side that defends this well can get through that stretch even if the goals stay scarce. That is why they rank last.

What the table hides

With four matchdays left, the top eight go straight to the last 16, places nine to 24 go into the play-offs and the bottom 12 are out. Points will decide it, but the structure of each team will decide the points. Napoli and Villarreal have defensive problems that the fixture list cannot hide. Roma’s problem appears only once they are ahead. Leipzig, Porto and Atlético are in a bad position mostly because of their opponents and their finishing, which is the easier problem to fix.

Tags: Atlético Madrid, champions league, AS Roma, Napoli, FC Porto, RB Leipzig