Thirty days out, every call we made about Venezia 83 was an argument from method and casting, because not a frame had screened. Four days into the competition the festival has already spoken twice, and loudly. Danny Boyle’s Ink opened to a five-minute ovation and reviews calling it his best since Slumdog Millionaire; Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine then drew a 14-minute standing ovation, the longest of the edition so far. But the refinement cuts asymmetrically: almost every marquee favourite — Lee Chang-dong, Werner Herzog, Hirokazu Kore-eda, Alicia Vikander, Penélope Cruz, Vincent Lindon — plays between now and the eve of the ceremony. Two categories now rest on hard evidence. Five are still forecasts, and the field around them has already shifted.

It is worth remembering how this edition was framed before it began: another off-year, a lineup light on studio wattage, widely called underwhelming on paper. The first four days have quietly rebuked that read — two of the loudest premieres in recent Lido memory, from a first-time Venice competitor and a two-time screenplay laureate. And the jury matters here more than at any festival with a precursor season, because there is no precursor season: Maggie Gyllenhaal presides over a room that includes Johnnie To, Kaouther Ben Hania and Shahrbanoo Sadat, an actor’s-director chair flanked by filmmakers drawn to the ethics of witnessing. Read the picks below through that lens — this is a jury built to reward performance texture and moral seriousness over spectacle.

Golden Lion

Refined pick still Possible Love (Lee Chang-dong), on ceiling — but it has not screened, so the call stays a hypothesis. What changed: the room. Wild Horse Nine‘s 14-minute ovation turns McDonagh from a screenplay play into a live threat for the top prize. Risk: the favourite is still unseen while the challenger has already conquered the Sala Grande.

Grand Jury Prize (Silver Lion)

Pick holds — Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog), still to screen. The logic is unchanged: a jury reluctant to crown him outright has this laurel for exactly that reluctance. New pressure: if the love for Wild Horse Nine doesn’t convert to the Lion, the Silver Lion is where it lands instead. Risk: Herzog unseen, and his films arrive transcendent or inert with no warning.

Silver Lion — Best Director

Was Kore-eda for Look Back, still unscreened. What changed: Boyle. Ink landed as pure directorial velocity — a boardroom cut like a heist — and that is precisely what this craft prize rewards. Boyle moves from dark horse to co-frontrunner on the strength of the reception. Refined: Kore-eda still the pick on method, Boyle the threat the room built. Risk: a director-heavy field turns the prize into a Lion consolation.

Coppa Volpi — Best Actor

Was Vincent Lindon for Good Little Soldier (Stéphane Brizé), still to screen. What changed: the screened films crowded the lane. Guy Pearce‘s Murdoch in Ink drew the festival’s first raves, and Malkovich and Rockwell are called award-worthy in Wild Horse Nine. Refined: Lindon still the pick — Venice loves the interior turn — but Pearce is the name the first four days produced. Risk: a two-hander splits Malkovich and Rockwell.

Coppa Volpi — Best Actress

Was Alicia Vikander in The Echo Chamber (Andrea Pallaoro), unscreened. Cruz in Bunker and Jeon Do-yeon in Possible Love are unseen too. No actress vehicle has screened yet, which makes this the least-evidenced call on the board. Refined: hold Vikander on Pallaoro’s track record with this exact prize, but the entire race plays next week. Risk: total — the category is still pure paper.

Best Screenplay

Was Martin McDonagh for Wild Horse Nine — and it has hardened into the surest call on the board. A 14-minute ovation, one wickedly quotable line after another, and a jury that already rewarded his writing here in 2017 and 2022. Refined: McDonagh, firmer than any other pick. Risk: the paradox of success — if the film wins bigger, the jury spreads the wealth and hands screenplay to Nanni Moretti, the home favourite.

Special Jury Prize

Was Mr. Nelson, Did You Kill People? (Shinya Tsukamoto) — and the reception confirmed the profile. The film split critics exactly as forecast: haunting to some, a misfire and one of the competition’s most unpleasant sits to others, with Rodney Hicks’s lead widely praised. That polarisation is the precise shape this prize rewards. Refined: pick holds, strengthened. Risk: too punishing for the jury to honour at all; DAU and Ali Asgari’s A Bit of Light still lurk.

The lock-vs-toss-up map

As close to locked as D-7 allows: Best Screenplay for McDonagh — the only pick with hard, rapturous evidence behind it — with the Special Jury Prize firming around Tsukamoto on its divisive reception. Genuinely open: the Golden Lion (favourite unscreened, McDonagh surging), Best Director (Boyle versus Kore-eda, one seen and one not), Best Actor (three screened rivals crowding an unscreened favourite), and Best Actress, where not a single contender has played. This is the actionable read: bet the writing prize, hold everything else.

How to watch, and what to track

The Venezia 83 closing ceremony airs from the Lido on Saturday 12 September, at 19:00 Rome time, with Maggie Gyllenhaal’s jury delivering the verdict. Track three things before then: Possible Love on 6 September, which decides whether our Golden Lion pick survives contact with the screen; Bunker on 8 September, the actress race’s biggest missing piece; and whether one title — right now that reads as Wild Horse Nine — starts pulling toward a sweep. MCM covers the night live and will test every one of these calls against the envelope.

Tags: awards, Venice Film Festival, danny boyle, Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine, Golden Lion